Does the Astrology File prove that astrology is true?
YES, these findings (partly) prove that
astrology is TRUE
In
order to answer the question “does the star sign under which a person is born
have any influence on that person’s nature?” the team led by Gunter Sachs
carried out 11 investigations and found significant differences in ALL of them,
which in 9 cases were highly significant i.e. very unlikely to be due to
chance.
And
they did not stop there. In the world of science one always needs a
control group, because the research team may be making a systematic
error in good faith and their significant findings might be due to the
error. If the significant findings occur
only in the investigational group and not in the control group, then the
probability of a systematic error is strongly reduced. To this purpose the statisticians mixed the
data at random and created artificial star signs. “To do so they left the traditional star
signs in the same order within the year, but provided these with artificial
i.e. false birth dates. In this way an
artificial year resulted, beginning with 6 April, for example, followed by 11
November. etc.” They claim that they did
not find any significant correlation for marriages and suicides of artificial
star signs, and illustrate the data related to suicides.
Gunter
Sachs reaches the conclusion that “We have proved it – there is a
correlation” and his conclusion is officially supported by the statistician
involved. What is more – and important
in the world of science – Gunter Sachs asked for peer review, which was
performed by Head and a Section Head of the Institute for Research and
Development into Federal Statistics at the German Statistical Office. The key conclusions of his review are that “Gunter
Sachs used correct statistical methods without exceptions” and that “the
few critical remarks we have made do not adversely affect the overall
impression. In our view his testing of
data and their reserved interpretation is successful and “skilled”.
NO, these findings do not prove that astrology
is TRUE
First
of all, the question was not related to astrology in its entirety, but only to
the star signs (= sun signs”), which are only one of the components of a
horoscope, the other two being the position of the planets and the aspects
among the various planets.
Secondly,
the team led by Sachs undoubtedly found significant differences among people
with their sun in different zodiac signs from a statistical point of view i.e.
unlikely to be due to chance
HOWEVER
-
Little is said about the size of the
differences i.e. the difference that is actually seen in practice, in real
life. Were the differences really important?
-
Who says that the
differences were really due to astrology?
It is a pity that Sachs decided that he did not want
to include any astrologers in his research team. True, this meant that the team was fully independent
and that there could be no undue influence by astrologers, but it resulted in
the formulation of questions and choice of parameters that did not take any of
the previous research findings into consideration. This is an unorthodox way of carrying out
research, which usually starts with a rationale based on previous findings and
builds on what has previously been established.
When one reads the book, one gets the impression that no research had
been carried out in the past – which is simply not true (e.g. see the research
by Gauquelin). If Sachs had involved astrologers he could have asked more
targeted questions, such as: Is it true
that if you are born with the sun in XXXX sign, you are more likely to ….
Choose yyy profession, divorce, commit suicide, etc?? This would have given more credence to any
positive significant findings.
What Sachs actually did was ask questions
blindly. And he asked many, many
questions. It is well known in
statistics that if you ask often enough you will find associations by
chance. True, some allowance for this
was made, but even so, how can one really be sure that the results are due to
astrology and not to other factors? The team claim to have corrected for
differences in birth rates throughout the year, but there are doubts as to
whether this was exhaustively done so, as factors that potentially impact the
rates, such as climate and socio-economic factors, can change from year to year
and from place to place.
These and other criticisms raised by astrologers and
statisticians can be found at the website “Astrology and Science”.